Vietnam’s car sales to surpass motorbikes after 2035, World Bank forecasts

According to a newly released World Bank report, Vietnam is expected to reach a major milestone after 2035, when car sales will exceed motorbike purchases for the first time.

Vietnam’s car market expected to reach 1.5 million vehicles by 2030

In its latest Vietnam Economic Update, titled “Accelerating the Transition to Electric Vehicles in Vietnam”, the World Bank (WB) emphasized the importance of promoting electric vehicles (EVs) to develop a greener transport sector and reduce urban air pollution.

The Vietnamese government has outlined a national electrification strategy, aiming to transition to green transportation by 2050. Under Decision No. 876/QD-TTg, issued on July 22, 2022, the plan targets 50% of all urban vehicles and 100% of city buses and taxis to be electric by 2030.

By 2050, all road vehicles are expected to switch to EVs or other green energy alternatives. The strategy also includes expanding EV charging infrastructure and domestic vehicle production.

Chiara Rogate, a senior energy specialist at the World Bank, highlighted that for Vietnam to meet these targets, annual car sales must increase from 500,000 today to 1.5 million by 2030, 2 million by 2035, and 7.3 million by 2050.

As part of this transition, the demand for electric vehicles (both cars and motorbikes) is projected to reach 7 million units between 2024 and 2030, before soaring tenfold to 71 million units between 2031 and 2050.

Car sales to match motorbike sales by 2035

In 2022, Vietnam had 72.16 million registered motorbikes, accounting for 94% of total vehicles, with a ratio of 518 motorbikes per 1,000 people. In contrast, car ownership remained significantly lower, with just 22 cars per 1,000 people.

However, the World Bank predicts a shift in consumer behavior between 2024 and 2035, as car purchases increase while motorbike sales decline. By 2035, annual sales of both cars and motorbikes will equalize at approximately 2 million units each.

Beyond this point, the number of cars is projected to surge to 54 million, reaching 312 cars per 1,000 people by 2050 – a dramatic increase compared to 22 per 1,000 in 2022.

This forecast is based on Vietnam’s rising GDP per capita, which has climbed from $1,300 in 2010 to over $4,100 in 2022, with current projections nearing $5,000. As Vietnam moves into the upper middle-income bracket, higher earnings are making car ownership more accessible.

By 2035, EVs are expected to account for 25-30% of all cars sold, though this figure will depend on government incentives and manufacturer involvement. Meanwhile, the electrification rate for motorbikes is projected to reach 56% by 2035.

Hoang Hiep